Venezuela says Trump wants its oil. But is that the real US goal?

Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro says escalating pressure from the US comes down to one thing: Washington wants to grab the South American nation’s vast oil reserves.

This week the American military seized an oil tanker, which was allegedly carrying Venezuelan oil being shipped in violation of US sanctions, and threatened action against other ships.

The move followed a series of military strikes on Venezuelan boats, which the US alleges are drug-trafficking vessels. President Donald Trump has called on Maduro to leave office, accusing him of sending narcotics and murderers to the US.

So is it Venezuela’s oil that Trump really wants? And would it actually be worth it?

It is true that with an estimated 303 billion barrels, Venezuela is home to the world’s largest proven oil reserves.

But the amount of oil the country actually produces today is tiny by comparison.

Output has dropped off sharply since the early 2000s, as former President Hugo Chavez and then the Maduro administration tightened control over the state-run oil company, PDVSA, leading to an exodus of more experienced staff.

Though some Western oil firms, including the US company Chevron, are still active in the country, their operations have shrunk significantly as the US has widened sanctions and targeted oil exports, aiming to curb Maduro’s access to a key economic lifeline.

Sanctions – which the US first put in place in 2015 during President Barack Obama’s administration over alleged human rights violations – have also left the country largely cut off from the investment and the parts it needs.

“The real challenge they’ve got is their infrastructure,” says Callum McPherson, head of commodities at Investec.

In November, Venezuela produced an estimated 860,000 barrels per day, according to the latest oil market report from the International Energy Agency.

That is barely a third of what it was 10 years ago and accounts for less than 1% of world oil consumption.

Some in the US have made the case for intervention in Venezuela by pointing to the opportunities for American businesses to revive the oil industry.

“Venezuela, for the American oil companies, will be a field day,” Florida Republican congresswoman María Elvira Salazar said in a recent interview on Fox Business.

“American companies can go in and fix all the oil pipes, the whole oil rigs and everything that has to do with… oil and the derivatives.”

Trump might seem open to such arguments.

He campaigned on the slogan “drill, baby, drill” and has generally called for expanding oil production, which he has tied to lower prices for Americans.

But when it comes to Venezuela, the White House has said it is concerned about drug trafficking and what it sees as Maduro’s illegitimacy.

Asked on Thursday whether the US campaign in the region was about drugs or oil, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said the administration was focused on “many things”.

She called stopping the flow of illegal drugs to the US its “number one” priority.

Clayton Siegle, a senior fellow for energy security at the think tank the Center for Strategic and International Studies, says he takes such pronouncements “largely at face value”.

He pointed to the longstanding interest in the region of key players like Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

“I just have not seen the supporting evidence that oil is at the centre of its ambitions,” he says.

That’s not to say that US companies would not be interested.

At the moment, Chevron is the only American oil producer still active in Venezuela, after receiving a licence under former President Joe Biden in 2022 to operate, despite US sanctions.

The Trump administration extended the firm another waiver this year, though it has revoked exemptions for other firms, such as Spain’s Repsol, in a bid to curb the flow of funds to the Maduro regime.

Today, Chevron accounts for about a fifth of Venezuela’s oil production.

Analysts say Chevron would be among those best-placed to benefit, should the US start to lift its barriers against dealing with Venezuela.

Refiners in the US, particularly those around the Gulf Coast, are also hungry for the “heavier” type of crude that Venezuela produces, which tends to be less expensive and therefore more profitable to process.

“It has been problematic for US Gulf Coast refiners in recent years that Venezuela has been under sanctions and been reducing production, because it means there’s less of that heavy crude available,” says Matt Smith, oil analyst at Kpler.

“Even if they weren’t getting involved in the production side of things, they would be a keen buyer of it.”

While any expansion of oil exports from Venezuela could help bring down prices in the US, analysts say that would take time, with its current output too limited to make a significant impact.

And restoring Venezuela’s oil industry to its former glory would be a heavy lift.

According to a recent Wood Mackenzie report, improved management and some modest investments could help boost oil production in Venezuela to about two million barrels per day over the next two years.

But analysts warned it would take tens of billions of dollars – and potentially a decade – to raise output more significantly.

They also said companies could be put off by potential complications like its membership in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec).

Another risk is the outlook for oil demand, as it becomes relatively less important as an energy source, says David Oxley, chief climate and commodities economist at Capital Economics.

“Oil demand is not going to fall off a cliff but it is no longer growing as it was. We see it as subdued and will start falling in the late 2030s,” he says.

“Anyone investing in the Venezuelan oil sector would have to think, is it worth it?”

Even if Maduro were ousted or US barriers were to lift, Mr Oxley says it is not clear how willing companies would be to commit the time and money it would take to bring Venezuela’s oil back online.

“On the oil side, you’d need to see lots and lots of investment. Certainly in the billions,” he says, “‘Drill, baby, drill’ – that’s fine but private companies are only going to come in and do it if it’s profitable.”